Larry’s Note: Chris Lowe and I turned to my macro market outlook in our most recent discussion. We covered the recent correction that’s been hitting the markets this month.
We also looked at opportunities right now across various sectors and commodities. Even when the outlook is bearish, there are still ways to profit – as well as spaces to avoid.
So read on below for our most recent conversation…
I hope you enjoy. If you want to see more content like this, write to me at [email protected].
[Editor’s Note: Transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.]
Chris Lowe: Hey, Larry, good to talk to you this week.
Larry Benedict: Oh, thanks, Chris. Glad to be here again. I really enjoy it.
Chris: Yeah, me, too. I think it’s very helpful for readers to get an insight into what you’re looking at when you sit down at your trader’s desk. I think we might want to start, Larry, with the correction in stocks that’s been underway for quite a while now.
We had a very strong 2023 that surprised a lot of people. And just recently, stocks have started to correct. So what do you think is going on there? Is this making you more bearish or do you think it’s something of a head fake?
Larry: So let me preface by saying the market started to correct at the beginning of August. Sort of right on cue. And really the correction is only like 2-3%. The one interesting takeaway is I feel like we’re making lower highs, and we’re going a bit lower.
I think rallies at this point should be sold if you get any. It’s not a bad point to come in and try to short the market off of that for a trade.
The market is a little bit sketchy here. It’s really a lack of liquidity that’s pushing the market. We’re having huge moves intraday, 50 to 70 S&P points, which is 1-1.5% on a daily basis. And we’re really not going anywhere.
So the takeaway for me is if you’re long, it’s probably a really good spot to lighten up on rallies. And you know, if you want to reestablish a long position, you could probably look for lower levels. We do believe we’re going to see lower levels.
Chris: So, Larry, what can your subscribers expect from you in terms of trades? Are they going to have a more bearish tone?
Larry: Well, this is this is sort of my quick global macro synopsis. I think bonds at these levels should be bought, ten-year notes. iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is like a combination of 10- and 30-years. We like that.
Oil has been very interesting. It went from last minute at about $67 a barrel all the way up to $85. So it had over 20% rally in four weeks and now has pulled back from $85 down to $77, which are massive moves. The S&P doesn’t move that for the whole year. So we like oil. We think the trend is probably higher in oil, although choppy.
We believe the S&P and Nasdaq are topping here. Once people get back from vacation, they see how much they’re up on the year. People like to lock it in coming into September. People are coming back from vacation and selling.
Traditionally, it’s funny because it looks like September is the worst month of the year. But really, to me, I’m always scared of October. Think of the ’87 crash, the mini-crash in ’89. Obviously, the crash of 1929 was in October.
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So we always get a lot of fear. And then, you know, the market somehow works its way back to the end of the year. So we think that could play out as well. We’re going to see some choppy action in here.
Yet gold is a no-trade for us. I’ve looked at the three-year return on gold. Believe it or not, it is flat. I think it’s down 3% in three years. So, yes, it has good rallies, and if your timing is right, you can make a lot of money. But it’s really not in my mind an investible asset that you want to sit in.
And especially with rates being 5%+ on a one-year, you’re better off putting your money in a CD or T-bill and collecting the 5%. And that’s the macro landscape from a 20,000-foot view.
Chris: Great, Larry, we will wrap it up there, and we’ll talk next week about what you’re looking at then.
Larry: Okay. Perfect. Thanks, Chris. I really appreciate it.