Larry’s Note: If you think the chaos in the market is over… think again. Between looming tariffs and economic uncertainty, the choppiness in the stock market is just getting started.
And I’m watching a few other “chaos catalysts” that could mean trouble stretching out anywhere from months to years…
The good news is… chaos doesn’t scare me. In fact, I’ve often made some of my best returns during tumultuous years. Like the $95 million in profits I made during the financial crisis in 2008. I brought in healthy profits during 2020 and 2022 as well.
And in 2025, we’re turning out gains like 97.7%… 86.4%… 36.5%… 134.9%… 23.1%… 31.0%… 22.1%… and more.
So if you want to learn how I turn chaos into profits, please plan to attend my Countdown to Chaos briefing at 11 a.m. ET on April 23. You can add your name to the guest list automatically by going right here.
I’ll explain how I spot these chaotic moments ahead of time… and my strategy for thriving amid volatility. I hope to see you there!
The moves in the stock market have been downright historic.
On an intraday basis, the S&P 500 tipped into one of the fastest bear markets in history. Over $5 trillion in market value was wiped out in just four days.
That gave way to one of the best single-day rallies ever for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
The swings are enough to make your head spin.
But important moves are happening outside of the stock market too.
Volatility in Treasury yields is spiking higher as well.
Today, I’ll show why you need to be paying attention to the recent move in interest rates… and I’ll reveal one ominous chart pattern that could spell more volatility ahead…
A Jump in Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield doesn’t receive much attention in the mainstream media.
But it should.
Movements in bond yields can have a major effect on the economy and markets. That’s especially the case when the 10-year yield is on the rise.
Rising interest rates hurt stock market valuations. Future corporate earnings lose their worth in today’s dollars.
The level of the 10-year yield impacts borrowing costs like mortgage rates too. A rising 10-year yield means the cost to finance a home purchase goes higher.
Debt issued by corporations is also linked to the level of Treasury yields.
As you can see, fluctuating yields impact the stock market and economy in several ways.
And the 10-year yield just witnessed one of its biggest jumps in history.
Take a look at the chart below:
Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged by 0.5% at the arrow. That might seem like a small move on the face of it. But it is one of the biggest weekly increases in the last 30 years.
Keep in mind that bond prices move opposite to yields. So when rates are rising, bond prices are falling.
The only other period rivaling such an increase happened during 2001 in the middle of the tech bubble meltdown.
But the recent jump in yields might just be the start.
Next, I want to show you a chart you need to keep on your screen…
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Not Out of the Woods
Treasury bonds are supposed to be a safe place to hide when the stock market is going haywire.
But what do you do when bonds and stocks start swinging at the same time?
When yields jump (and bond prices fall) while stocks are selling off, that signals turmoil spreading across the market.
(That’s in addition to the impact yields have on things like stock valuations and borrowing costs noted above.)
And I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet with rising yields.
In fact, one chart pattern suggests things could get much worse. Take a look at the chart of the 10-year Treasury yield below:
The 10-year Treasury yield is creating an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern (shown with the arches).
You might have heard of a head-and-shoulders top. This is the same pattern flipped upside down.
And in this case, it warns of higher levels for the 10-year yield. A break above the neckline (dashed line) at 4.80% is the key level to watch for next.
That would complete the pattern and point to another rally in interest rates.
If that plays out, expect more economic uncertainty. And another sharp rise in yields would mean that stock market volatility is here to stay…
Happy Trading,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict