Larry’s Note: This is last call…
The replay of my briefing on bitcoin skimming goes offline at midnight. So if you haven’t tuned in yet, be sure to do so soon.
Remember, with bitcoin skimming, you can turn bitcoin’s price moves into regular profits – whether it rockets higher or falls to earth. Using this strategy, we’ve been able to beat the profits of just buying and holding bitcoin by 6x… 9x… and even 22x.
So if you’re interested in pulling in bitcoin profits without owning a cent of bitcoin, then please go right here to watch. There are only a few hours left…
Two weeks ago, we took a close-up look at crypto exchange, Coinbase Global (COIN)…
Coinbase rallied 167% going into the end of last year. But then it reversed sharply and struggled to hold the $150 level.
The huge buzz around the SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs quickly turned into a classic case of “sell the news.”
I wrote at the time that we could soon see COIN test the $125 level due to declining buying momentum.
And as the chart below shows, that is what happened.
So today, I want to check back in on COIN to see how things could play out from here…
Unable to Gain Traction
In the chart below, the 50-day Moving Average (MA, blue line) shows COIN’s climb throughout 2023. The chart also shows two dramatic up moves within this overall trend:
Coinbase Global (COIN)
Source: eSignal
These sharp rallies led to COIN’s peaks in July (up around 145% trough to peak) and December (up 167%). And each one came off the back of a surge in buying momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke up through resistance (green line) and tracked strongly in the upper half of its range.
The 10-day MA (red line) accelerating rapidly above the 50-day MA confirmed these moves as well.
But I want to concentrate on the action after those peaks today…
When the RSI reversed after the July peak, it initially bounced from near oversold territory (lower grey dashed line).
Yet it struggled to maintain any momentum.
From late August through November (orange circle), the RSI kept peppering resistance (green line). But despite piercing it multiple times, the RSI couldn’t gain traction in its upper band.
This action coincided with COIN tracking aimlessly. And the two MAs tracked sideways and stayed close together.
COIN only finally burst higher in November when the RSI made a decisive move back into its upper range.
Take another look:
Coinbase Global (COIN)
Source: eSignal
That’s why I’m closely watching the pattern developing right now.
The RSI fell through support earlier this month. But it has recently been moving sideways. This enabled COIN to build short-term support (orange line).
If the RSI retests that resistance level, that will determine COIN’s direction from here.
So what am I looking for next?
Free Trading Resources
Have you checked out Larry’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just click here to check it out.
Hold Above Resistance
When a stock falls as hard and quickly as COIN (down around 36% in less than a month), you can typically expect to see a bounce.
After all, bargain hunters come in once they believe the stock has become too cheap to ignore.
And what happens after that bounce is key.
If the RSI can’t break and hold above resistance, then any bounce will ultimately be short-lived – just like we saw from August to early November.
We’ll also keep a close eye on the MACD. Throughout August to November, the blue MACD line and orange signal line bearishly tracked closely together below the zero (0.00) line.
Compare that to when COIN rallied in July and December. The MACD line crossed above the signal line. And both rose strongly.
So for COIN to sustain a rally, then we need to see a repeat of this bullish MACD pattern.
Regards,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
Mailbag
Are you planning to invest in any of the new bitcoin spot ETFs? Share your thoughts at [email protected].