Opportunistic Trader Overnight Recap 12/4
US Yields falling!

World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The initial trader and investor euphoria regarding a U.S.-China trade dispute cease-fire for 90 days has quickly dissipated. The marketplace has quickly realized “the devil is in the details” on getting this matter resolved. The matter will likely continue to produce uncertainty in markets, with comments from U.S. and China government officials continuing to tweak the markets—just like was the case before the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi last weekend.

A feature in the marketplace just recently is falling U.S. Treasury yields (rising prices). Notions of a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months have helped to boost T-Bond and T-Note prices.

In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for October came in at up 0.8% from September and up 4.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were hotter than expected.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. The U.S.-China trade truce has boosted the world’s secondary currency markets, which in turn is pressuring the greenback. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $54.00 a barrel. Some short covering is seen in the oil market recently, following steep losses. The OPEC oil cartel will meet in Vienna, Austria on Thursday. Reports said Russian and Saudi Arabian officials plan to extend production cuts. Also, Canada will curtail its crude production.

The death of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush and a national day of mourning Wednesday will close the U.S. stock and financial markets. Other U.S. futures markets will remain open as normal.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York report on business, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,800.00 and then at Monday’s high of 2,819.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,772.50 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,086.50 and then at 7,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 6,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 23/32 and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140 27/32 and then at 140 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.31.5 and then at 120.04.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.22.0 and then at 119.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.300 and then at Monday’s high of 96.530. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 95.750 and then at 95.385.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are higher again today on more short covering. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. There are still no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $54.55 and then at $55.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $53.00 and then at $52.50.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices are set to open narrowly mixed today. The bullishness from the U.S.-China trade ceasefire has quickly faded in the grain markets. The question this week will be if the short-covering rebound seen Monday can be sustained, or will the rallies fizzle. The grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.