Opportunistic Overnight Recap 11/26

-Solid Black Friday sales on a yoy basis
– Positive development on Brexit and Italian budget fronts
– G20 meeting to be held in Argentina from Nov 30th to Dec 1st.
-FOMC Minutes to be released Thursday


European stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, as trader and investor appetites are more upbeat following a Brexit deal between the U.K. and the EU that appears a bit closer to being agreed upon, but still needs U.K. Parliament approval. U.S. stock indexes are pointed solidly higher at the New York openings.

Focus this week will be on the upcoming Group of 20 meeting later this week in Argentina that will feature a face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. The world’s two largest economies are locked in a heated trade war that appears to show no signs of de-escalating.

There is also talk in the marketplace just recently that the U.S. Federal Reserve may take a more dovish tone on its monetary policy due to notions the recent strong U.S. economic growth may be backing off. The Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss monetary policy in December.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer today on short covering and a corrective rebound after hitting a 13-month low of $50.10 overnight. Crude prices are down around 20% following the recent sharp declines.

The other key outside market today finds the U.S. dollar index trading lower but not far below this month’s 1.5-year high.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective rebound from recent strong selling pressure. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,671.25 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,626.00 and then at the October low of 2,603.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today, on short covering after hitting a multi-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,700.00 and then at 6,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,600.00 and then at 6,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today, on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high on Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 140 5/32 and then at last week’s high of 140 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 139 22/32 and then at 139 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today, on a corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high on Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.11.5 and then at last week’s high of 119.14.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.00.0 and then at 118.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 97.000 and then at 97.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 96.560 and then at Friday’s low of 96.295.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer after hitting a 13-month low of $50.10 overnight. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. There are no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $52.00 and then at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $50.00 and then at $49.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices are set to open mixed today. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. There fading ideas in the grain markets regarding the U.S. and China reaching a trade deal any time soon and that’s bearish for the grains. The U.S. and China presidents will meet face-to-face in Argentina later this week, to discuss trade. The grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.