Opportunistic Trader Overnight Recap 11/23

-Today US Equity markets close at 1pm while bond market closes at 2PM
-German Q3 Final GDP data was released and confirmed 1st quarterly contraction since Q2 2014
-Dollar is stronger across the board DXY 96.82 not far from the highs of the year.

European stock markets were mixed overnight, while Asian equities were mostly down. Japan’s markets were closed for a public holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed lower at the New York opening. Recent losses have wiped out this year’s gains in the U.S. stock indexes. It appears the U.S. stock indexes have put in major market tops.

The U.S.-China trade war is not improving and could be escalating. Reports say the U.S. is talking to its allies regarding boycotting a Chinese technology firm due to cybersecurity risks. This news followed the mid-week report from the U.S. Trade Representative that accused China of continued theft of U.S. technology and espionage. U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet face-to-face in Argentina next week.

Nymex crude oil futures prices are sharply lower today and hit 13-month low of $51.73 a barrel. The steep drop in oil prices has world stock market traders uneasy, despite the fact lower retail gasoline prices will boost consumer spending, especially in the U.S.

History shows today is likely to see a very quiet trading session in the U.S., following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Many U.S. markets close early today. Friday is the “Black Friday” U.S. sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing PMIs.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and poised to close at a seven-month low close today, if these early losses hold. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,656.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of 2,671.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,632.25 and then at the October low of 2,603.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,598.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 6,647.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 6,449.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and poised to close at a seven-week high close today, if early gains hold. The market has seen some safe-haven demand amid a wobbly U.S. stock market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 140 9/32 and then at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 22/32 and then at 139 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today and poised to close at a seven-week high close today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.14.0 and then at 119.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.04.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.825 and then at 97.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.205 and then at this week’s low of 95.930.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower and hit a 13-month low of $51.73 overnight. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. There are no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $53.00 and then at $54.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $51.73 and then at $51.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices are set to open narrowly mixed today. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. There fading ideas in the grain markets regarding the U.S. and China reaching a trade deal any time soon and that’s bearish for the grains. Look for the markets to continue to gyrate on fresh news regarding the U.S.-China trade matter. The grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.