Opportunistic Trader Overnight Recap 11/19/2018

Global stock markets were mixed in subdued trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

There are no major news developments early this week to stoke the markets. Reports the CIA has named the Saudi Crown Prince as the one who ordered the killing of the Saudi journalist last month are not moving the markets. Most believe the U.S. has too much at stake with the Saudis as their Middle East ally and U.S. arms purchaser to make a big deal over the matter.

It could be a quieter trading week as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday falls on Thursday. U.S. markets close early Wednesday, with Friday the “Black Friday” sale affair that finds many traders and investors out for the day, shopping for Christmas gift deals.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but still not far below this month’s 1.5-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-month low of $54.75 last week.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes quarterly retail e-commerce sales and the NAHB housing market index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,748.00 and then at 2,766.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,708.75 and then at 2,685.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,934.50 and then at 6,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 6,806.25 and then at 6,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today, after hitting a nearly three-week high overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but recent gains begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 139 30/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 138 22/32 and then at 138 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.10.0 and then at 119.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 118.24.5 and then at 118.19.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.435 and then at Friday’s high of 96.920. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.000 and then at the November low of 95.485.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. There are still no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $57.96 and then at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $55.89 and then at $55.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA export inspections data. There are mixed ideas in the grain markets regarding the U.S. and China reaching a trade deal any time soon. Look for the markets to continue to gyrate on fresh news regarding the matter. The grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.