Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/18/2018

-Summer trends remain intact. Asian Equities lower, Commodities lower, Dollar higher and US Equities continue to heavily outperform global equity index’s.
-Overnight Shanghai -0.4%, Kospi -0.3%, Nikkei +0.4%, Dax +0.7%, S&P flat , NQ -5. Dollar stronger USD/JPY 113, EUR 1.1622, GBP 1.3033. Gold and metals cant catch a bid GC 1223, Copper, 2.72, Silver 15.5. US 10 vs 2 yr spread has narrowed to .24 (10’s 2.85, 2’s 2.61).
-Oil inventories x 10:30 which is a key number following recent sell off in energy markets.
—————————————————————-
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a very upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy to a U.S. Senate panel on Tuesday, which helped to boost U.S. stock indexes to contract or multi-month highs.

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for June was reported up 0.1% from May and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $67.50 a barrel. Recent solid losses in crude suggest this market has topped out. Brent crude oil prices hit a three-month low today. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher today and very close to its recent 12-month high.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book. Fed Chairman Powell also speaks to the U.S. House of Representatives today on monetary policy.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high overnight. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,825.00 and then at 2,840.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,789.75 and then at 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower on mild profit taking after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 7,437.75 and then at 7,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,400.00 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145 24/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 144 23/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher and near the recent contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 94.255 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 94.720 and then at 94.500.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Recent downside price action suggests a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $68.44 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $67.03 and then at $66.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer again overnight on more short covering and bargain hunting. Corn and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat has stabilized on ideas of a shorter world wheat crop this year. Bulls need a weather market in the grains, but the clock is ticking on such developing in the U.S. Corn Belt this year.