Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/17/2018

-Quiet summer markets thus far Asian index’s were down small overnight. US and EU are currently down small,Dax -15, S&P -3, NQ -12 set for a lower open following NFLX earnings disappointment.
-Commodities have stabilized and are broadly flat to up small.
-FX very quiet Dollar down small EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY continue to grind higher.
-Bitcoin continues higher for the week last x $6,720, once again $6,000 level holds as support.
-10am Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies to US Congress.
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MSCI’s world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, is broadly unchanged, with energy companies in Europe and Asia recovering ground from early losses caused by the previous day’s turbulence in commodity markets.

On tap today, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. The marketplace will parse his words for clues on timing of future interest rate increases.

Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading just below $68.00 a barrel. Recent solid losses in crude begin to suggest this market has topped out. World oil production is back on the rise after some recent outages from producing countries. The U.S. dollar index relatively flat as we await Powell’s comments.(DXY -0.05%, EUR/USD 1.1720, AUD/USD .7910, GBP/USD 1.3230).

Grain futures prices are firmer overnight on short covering from recent selling pressure. Corn and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-month high on Monday. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 2,814.00 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,785.00 and then at 2,773.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high last Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,350.00 and then at the contract high of 7,414.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,275.00 and then at 7,250.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 145 24/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 144 23/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 94.520 and then at last week’s high of 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.750.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Recent downside price action begins to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.00 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $67.58 and then at $67.00.
GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering from recent selling pressure. Corn and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat has stabilized on ideas of a shorter world wheat crop this year. Bulls need a weather market in the grains, but the clock is ticking on such developing in the U.S. Corn Belt this year.