The Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/13

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight (Nikkei +1.8%, Kospi +1.1%, Dax +0.33%, ES +2 NQ +10). U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes hit multi-month highs overnight. There is little risk aversion in the marketplace at present, which is keeping a flow of investor monies into world equities markets.

The British pound is under some pressure versus the U.S. dollar (-75 x 1.3135) today as President Trump has criticized U.K. Prime Minister May for her Brexit strategy. May is perceived to be in a very weak position in her leadership, at present.

Nymex crude oil prices weaker on follow-through selling from strong losses posted Wednesday, and are trading just above $70.00 a barrel. A lower close in the Nymex oil futures market today would be a technical clue that crude oil has put in at least a near-term top, if not a major top. Metals and Ag’s remain very weak which has been the theme of the past few weeks (gold 1241, Copper 2.76). Corn and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt (Corn 3.42, Soybeans 826).

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher today as the greenback bulls have had a good week. The USDX is now not far below its recent 12-month high. A U.S. consumer inflation reading Thursday that hit a six-year high (CPI at 2.9% annually) has bolstered notions the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates a total of four times this year.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Similar themes – commodities weak, yields roughly flat, dollar strong, money flowing to US equities, Vix below 13.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,807.25 and then at 2,814.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,775.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,761.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 7,414.25 and then at 7,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,350.00 and then at 7,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145 28/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 145 7/32 and then at this week’s low of 144 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are back near the June high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the June high of 95.255 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 94.565 and then at 94.000.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on follow-through pressure from the big sell-off on Wednesday. A lower close today would suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $70.42 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.23 and then at $69.00.
GRAINS

Grain futures prices mixed to lower overnight. Corn and soybean market bears remain in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Wheat has rallied a bit on ideas of a shorter world wheat crop this year. Thursday’s USDA report was bullish for corn, and a bit bearish for soybeans and wheat.