The Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/12/2018

Following a strong risk off day yesterday where we saw global commodity and equity markets have one of their worst day in years, markets have stabilized overnight.

World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

U.S. President Trump is in Europe meeting with European leaders, with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for next Monday. The marketplace will watch Trump’s meetings closely. The just-concluded NATO meeting was declared a success by Trump.

The June U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report due out on Thursday morning is seen being up 0.2% from May. The June producer price index report, released on Wednesday morning, was also up 0.2% from May.

In overnight news, the European Commission projected the Euro zone inflation rate at 1.7% in 2018 and in 2019, which is up just slightly from their earlier forecasts.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer, on a corrective rebound from strong losses posted Wednesday, and are trading just below $71.00 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar index continues to move higher. USD/JPY has broken through long term resistance (111.5) in spite of recent risk off environment (breaking from old correlations) last 112.55. Commodity currencies were quiet overnight but have heavily underperformed and remain vulnerable.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, monthly retail chain store sales numbers, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,797.75 and then at 2,814.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,761.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,300.00 and then at this week’s high of 7,335.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,249.50 and then at this week’s low of 7,204.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 14/32 and then at this week’s high of 145 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 144 30/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 120.13.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.00.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 95.000 and then at the June high of 95.255. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.250 and then at 94.000.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, after the big sell-off on Wednesday. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but more strong selling pressure this week would suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.50 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure. Grain market bears are in firm technical command amid world ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. This week’s highlight will be today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.