Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/10
-Global Equities continue higher following stealth summer rally Monday. Shanghai +0.4, Nikkei +0.6%, Dax +0.7%, ES +6, NQ +24
-Yields continue to edge higher US 10yr 2.87, US 2yr 2.57
-Following the higher yields USD/JPY has been edging up and is right near long term trend line x 111.50,EUR/JPY 130.25.
-The Chinese yuan rebounded and the dollar strengthened broadly on Monday as investors bought riskier assets, encouraged by signs that trade tensions have yet to hurt economic momentum. As the second quarter corporate earnings season begins, investors appear to be ignoring the deepening conflict between the United States and China over trade.
-Keep an eye for further news on BREXIT to move GBP. Absent that, G-10 FX market is pretty quiet.
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World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There continues to be little risk aversion in the marketplace at present, despite a U.S.-China trade war that is brewing.

In overnight news, the closely watched German ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell to its lowest level in nearly six years with a reading of -24.7 in July. The June reading was -16.1.

The important U.S. economic data due out this week includes the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading just above $74.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher (EUR 1.17,GBP 1.324, USD/JPY 111.33).

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the March high of 2,814.00 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’st low of 2,761.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 7,358.50 and then at 7,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,297.75 and then at 7,250.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on some more profit taking from recent gains. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 145 28/32 and then at last week’s high of 146 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 144 16/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 120.12.5 and then at last week’s high of 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.250 and then at 94.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.750 and then at Monday’s low of 93.440.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at last week’s high of $75.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight. Bears are in firm technical command. World ag trade worries and generally very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish the grains. This week’s highlight will be the USDA monthly supply and demand report out Thursday morning.