Opportunistic Trader Overnight Report 7/9/2018

-Quiet markets and news cycle to start the week so Global Equity markets higher. Asia was up nicely Nikkei +1.2%, Shanghai +2.5%, Hang Seng +1.3%. in EU all index’s up small Dax +.15%, Eur Stoxx +0.35% and in the US ES +10, NQ +25.
– GBP/USD gets a small bounce from news U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May moved quickly to contain a crisis in her government after her chief Brexit negotiator quit, replacing him with a young euroskeptic and insisted she would press ahead with her vision for the divorce. (GBP/USD +0.4%)
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U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings (ES +10, NQ +25) when the New York day session begins.

There were no major markets-moving news developments over the weekend. Key U.S. economic data released this week includes the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday.

One worrisome development among economists in recent months is the very flat U.S. Treasury yield curve (the yield difference between the 2-year and 10-year notes) that has now fallen to a level below 0.3%. If the yield curve inverts, whereby the 2-year note yield rises above the 10-year note yield, such would strongly suggest a U.S. recession is on the horizon. The very closely watched yield curve and its potential for inverting could keep the Federal Reserve from raising U.S. interest rates as quickly as it would like—given the present stronger U.S. economic growth pace.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker and trading around $73.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is also lower as the greenback bulls have faded recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 2,796.00 and then at the March high of 2,814.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,761.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,300.00 and then at the June high of 7,358.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,032.25 and then at 7,000.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on some profit taking from recent gains. Prices are still in a near-term uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 28/32 and then at last week’s high of 146 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 145 even and then at last week’s low of 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.12.5 and then at last week’s high of 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.740 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.460 and then at 93.250.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.28 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.50.

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were lower overnight, on corrective pullbacks from good gains last Friday. Traders will closely examine today’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Bears are still in technical command. World ag trade worries and generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish.